- ruslanskomorohov
- Aug 9, 2019
- 4 min read
What will happen if satellite broadband becomes a standard thing in everyday life instead of an expensive luxury or necessity? I see four main potential scenarios that have quite different implication for consumers, industries, and regulators. Read on if you want to find out what those are.
Definitions: Satellite broadband mega-constellations refers to the on-going or proposed high speed consumer broadband service providers’ space segments planned or being deployed in Low Earth and Medium Earth Orbits (LEO and MEO). This includes constellations of varying size from tens to thousands of satellites launched by traditional satcom operators, NewSpace startups, and space industry leaders expanding into services.
Scope/Method/Timeframe: This analysis is based on a simplified Framework Foresight methodology and uses a 2x2 matrix based on two key identified uncertainties for scenario generation.
For more: Feel free to reach out (link to contacts page/info) in case you are interested in exploring this sector, market sizing, and most importantly scenarios and the impact they have on your industry or organization.
SCENARIOS:
Jungle Groves: In this scenario a large market demand allows for a high number of sizable and successful satellite broadband operators along with a number of smaller or niche players. Similar to the thriving ecosystem of equatorial and tropical jungles, groves of trees representing multiple satellites along orbits at different orbital planes by different types of providers (trees) and working in a market harmony.
Implications:
Multiple players with large multi-orbit mega constellations of thousands of satellites pursuing varying business models and markets globally
Existing satcom players lose significant market share of their corporate network and MSS services clients, likely leaving significant numbers of GEO orbital slots underutilized
Both suburban/rural areas of developed and emerging markets are served by the jungle groves
Astronomy observations are practically impossible due to tracing of satellites and light pollution, unless significant regulations are imposed on reflectivity of LEO satellites
Major impact on LEO space debris risks (even with satellite de-orbiting assumed)
Terrestrial ISPs (telco/cable/etc.) lose market share in suburban areas are likely partners or M&A targets of satellite broadband players
Explosion of media consumption (streaming, VR, gaming, etc.) in globally
Savanna Lion: This scenario represents a winner-take-all market structure where the player with the fastest and cheapest prices and cost structure (due to scale or vertical integration with launch services) dominates the mass global market. Similar to the apex predator of the savannas, the lion, there is no challenger. Alternatively, a set of leaders that have regional monopolies is also a version of this case.
Implications:
Single dominant player with a large multi-orbit mega constellation of thousands of satellites with large economies of scale and vertical integration and global reach
Existing satcom players lose significant market share of their corporate network and MSS services clients
Both suburban/rural areas of developed and emerging markets are served by the lion
Astronomy observations are significantly hindered with higher data processing and observation window costs, but benefits from the single constellation instead of multiple
Modest, but significant impact on LEO space debris risks (satellite de-orbiting assumed)
Terrestrial ISPs (telco/cable/etc.) lose market share in suburban areas unless they serve as distribution channels of satellite broadband
Explosion of media consumption (streaming, VR, gaming, etc.) in emerging markets
Wasteland Jackals: A few marginally successful (remaining) satellite broadband players are looking for niche markets and scrapes leftover by terrestrial or other competition in this scenario. Similar to jackals, they are ranging the wastelands for sources of food, barely surviving as opportunistic omnivores and proficient scavengers. Remote consumers and industry locations are among the main service targets.
Implications:
A couple of global and few players with a regional focus share the market leftovers of terrestrial and traditional satcom competitors after a number of bankruptcies and M&A
Existing satcom players keep their markets for the most part or protect the majority of it
Mostly rural and remote areas in developed markets and emerging market niches that can afford the price point across population densities are captured by the jackals
Astronomy observations are significantly hindered, but the lower number of satellites and strict reflectivity regulations make it possible to continue
Modest, but significant impact on LEO space debris risks (satellite de-orbiting assumed)
Terrestrial ISPs (telco/cable/etc.) use satellite broadband as an upsell opportunity in suburban, rural, or remote markets, but are not significantly affected otherwise
Minimal increase in media consumption (streaming, VR, gaming, etc.) in emerging markets
River Piranhas: This scenario represents an ecosystem consisting of a large number of constellations, vigorously competing for a relatively small market. Therefore, this is not a red ocean, but rather an ecosystem niche similar to the piranha’s river locales in the Amazon. Each blood-thirsty player competes for small piece of market to survive numerous bankruptcies and asset transfers plaguing the ecosystem.
Implications:
Numerous global and regional players share the market leftovers of terrestrial and traditional satcom competitors
Existing satcom players keep their markets for the most part or protect the majority of it
Mostly rural and remote areas in developed markets and emerging market niches that can afford the price point across population densities are captured by the piranhas
Astronomy observations are significantly hindered, but the lower number of satellites and strict reflectivity regulations make it possible to continue
Significant impact on LEO space debris risks (satellite de-orbiting assumed)
Terrestrial ISPs (telco/cable/etc.) use satellite broadband as an upsell opportunity in suburban, rural, or remote markets, but are not significantly affected otherwise
Moderate increase in media consumption (streaming, VR, gaming, etc.) in emerging markets as price points are low enough for a large number of users to subscribe